Close Menu
News JournosNews Journos
  • World
  • U.S. News
  • Business
  • Politics
  • Europe News
  • Finance
  • Turkey Reports
  • Money Watch
  • Health
Editors Picks

Sen. Cory Booker Delivers Extended Speech in Senate Protest Against Trump Policies

April 1, 2025

Trump Calls for Impeachment of Judge Who Halted Deportations

March 18, 2025

Trump and Putin to Discuss Ukraine Conflict Resolution

March 17, 2025

Federal Judge Allows Trump to Utilize Alien Enemies Act for Deportations With Notification

May 13, 2025

Trump Administration Grants Harvard 30 Days to Challenge Foreign Student Ban

May 29, 2025
Facebook X (Twitter) Instagram
Latest Headlines:
  • Trump’s Proposed Plan for Gaza Peace: Key Details Unveiled
  • Arizona Woman Accused of Aiding North Korean Workers to Breach US Companies
  • El Salvador Man Sentenced to 30 Years for Rape of 11-Year-Old in Virginia Beach
  • Germany Anticipates Modest Growth with Merz’s €500 Billion Overhaul Plan
  • Man Charged with Arson in Pacific Palisades Fire
  • AKP Chairman Resigns Amid Political Turmoil
  • Workplace Deaths Rise: 206 Workers Killed in September Across Construction and Agriculture
  • Israel and Hamas Agree on Hostage Release and Partial Troop Withdrawal
  • Increasing Cannabis Use Among Seniors: Reasons and Trends
  • AI-Driven Curriculum Replaces Teachers at $40,000-a-Year School
  • Dolly Parton Assures Fans She Is Not Dying After Sister’s Prayer Request
  • Domino’s Unveils First Major Redesign in 13 Years
  • Manchester Synagogue Attacker Swears Allegiance to Islamic State Prior to Assault
  • Senate Fails to Reach Agreement on Day 8 of Government Shutdown
  • Auto Industry Faces Turmoil as EU Implements New Steel Tariffs
  • FOMC Predicts Two Additional Rate Cuts by End of 2025
  • Air Traffic Control Shortages Contribute to U.S. Flight Delays, FAA Reports
  • COVID Mask Mandates Reinstated in Blue-State County Due to Increased Risk
  • Boston Pro-Palestinian Protest Escalates into Violent Riot, 13 Arrested
  • Israel Commemorates Two Years Since Hamas Attack Amid Ongoing Gaza War Reflections
Facebook X (Twitter) Instagram
News JournosNews Journos
Subscribe
Wednesday, October 8
  • World
  • U.S. News
  • Business
  • Politics
  • Europe News
  • Finance
  • Turkey Reports
  • Money Watch
  • Health
News JournosNews Journos
You are here: News Journos » U.S. News » Survey Indicates Nearly 50% Chance of Economic Recession
Survey Indicates Nearly 50% Chance of Economic Recession

Survey Indicates Nearly 50% Chance of Economic Recession

News EditorBy News EditorMarch 24, 2025 U.S. News 7 Mins Read

The prospect of a recession in the United States has intensified, with recent data indicating a nearly 50% probability of economic contraction within the next year. A Deutsche Bank survey reveals that around 43% of roughly 400 economic experts are concerned about a downturn, despite low unemployment rates and growth indicators. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges increasing worries while maintaining that the economy remains strong, albeit record low growth is expected this year. Analysts caution about the looming threat of stagflation, a situation characterized by stagnant economic growth and high inflation.

Article Subheadings
1) Survey Reveals Intensifying Concerns Regarding Recession
2) Federal Reserve’s Stance Amid Economic Uncertainty
3) Inflation and Its Consequences: The Stagflation Warning
4) Diverging Opinions Among Economists
5) The Role of Tariffs and Future Implications

Survey Reveals Intensifying Concerns Regarding Recession

In a recent Deutsche Bank survey conducted between March 17 and 20, the indication of economic contraction in the U.S. is closer than many anticipated. The survey aggregated responses from approximately 400 economists, analysts, and market participants, resulting in a projected 43% probability of a recession within the next year. Respondents expressed a variety of concerns relating to the sustainability of economic growth, particularly given the complex interplay of economic indicators and rising inflation rates.

Despite ongoing low unemployment, which generally signals a robust economy, the uncertainty expressed through this survey highlights pervasive worries about future economic health. Business leaders and consumers alike demonstrate increasing skepticism toward the continuity of growth, influenced by external variables such as inflation and fiscal measures. Notably, this growing apprehension may indicate a deviation from previously held optimistic outlooks about the resilience of the U.S. economic landscape.

Federal Reserve’s Stance Amid Economic Uncertainty

In response to burgeoning concerns around recession, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell openly acknowledged the worries raised by the market. He asserted that, despite the tension relating to inflation and an indicative slowdown, the overall state of the economy remained strong. Powell pointed out that significant progress had been made toward economic stability, emphasizing that the central bank would continue to address prevailing economic challenges. Yet, during a two-day policy meeting concluding last week, Federal officials revised their expectations for economic growth, now projecting a mere 1.7% annualized growth rate for the year.

This adjusted outlook, if realized, would represent a significant slowdown in economic performance, the worst growth rate since 2011, and is set against the backdrop of heightened inflation conditions. Core inflation estimates have also been raised by the Fed, now standing at 2.8%, surpassing the central bank’s long-term target of 2%. Although achieving this target is expected by 2027, the adjustments signal a growing recognition of challenges that could impact both consumer spending and investment across the economy.

Inflation and Its Consequences: The Stagflation Warning

The interplay between inflation and economic growth has led analysts to warn of the specter of stagflation. Defined as a stagnation of economic growth coupled with high inflation, stagflation is a scenario many economists fear, given the historically low growth forecasts. Comparisons to the early 1980s, when stagflation presented a significant challenge, are becoming increasingly prevalent as financial markets grapple with rising prices amidst stagnant growth. Notably, few economists predict a direct replication of the circumstances leading to that previous crisis, however, the pressures are palpable as converging economic indicators prompt careful analysis of future policy interventions.

The fears surrounding stagflation have become a source of anxiety for economic stakeholders who are now grappling with the question of how the Federal Reserve will address these dual challenges. Will it prioritize efforts to foster growth at the expense of managing inflation, or will it choose to implement measures to control prices even at the potential cost of further slowing growth? The answers to these pivotal questions will significantly influence the economic trajectory as we head toward the latter half of the year and beyond.

Diverging Opinions Among Economists

The discourse among economists regarding the potential for recession highlights a significant divergence in opinions. Bond expert Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital emphasizes that current market volatility and the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policies have left investors concerned, estimating a recession probability between 50% and 60%. Notably, Morgan Stanley pointed out how the recent correction in equity markets has been exacerbated by uncertainties related to tariff policies, further complicating already complex market dynamics.

In contrast, analysts at Barclays have suggested that current market signals only indicate a modest slowing of the economy, with a predicted growth rate of merely 0.7% for the year. This forecast hovers just above the recession threshold, prompting debate on whether existing policies are conducive to fostering economic recovery or deterring growth altogether. As different analyses emerge, the economic community grapples with the implications of these forecasts, underscoring the importance of adapting to ever-evolving market conditions.

The Role of Tariffs and Future Implications

Economic forecasts have further been complicated by trade policies, notably those implemented under former President Donald Trump. Concerns raised by economists from the UCLA Anderson School regarding potential tariffs have prompted discussions about the future trajectory of the U.S. economy. The school’s economists recently declared a “recession watch” based primarily on the implications of tariff policies, suggesting that unless there is a retreat from these measures, a downturn could manifest in one to two years, albeit it is deemed “entirely avoidable.”

One economist at UCLA Anderson cautioned the current administration by saying,

“be careful what you wish for because, if all your wishes come true, you could very well be the author of a deep recession.”

With tariffs and trade policies front and center, the implications of these discussions will be pivotal in shaping economic recovery and addressing inflationary pressures as stakeholders continue to navigate a rapidly changing economic landscape.

No. Key Points
1 A Deutsche Bank survey indicates a 43% probability of recession in the next 12 months.
2 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintains that the economy remains strong, despite recognizing challenges.
3 Inflation rates are projected to be 2.8%, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
4 Concerns over stagflation are growing as slow growth and high inflation present risks.
5 Tariff policies could worsen economic prospects if not adjusted, according to economists.

Summary

The current economic climate reflects intense scrutiny regarding future growth prospects, with surveys indicating a rising likelihood of recession driven by factors such as inflation and tariff policies. The Federal Reserve’s revised growth expectations and concerns over stagflation have generated significant dialogue within the economic community. As various opinions emerge, it becomes increasingly vital for policymakers and stakeholders to approach economic challenges with caution, understanding that swift actions today can have lasting implications on future economic stability.

Frequently Asked Questions

Question: What are the primary indicators of a potential recession?

Primary indicators include declining GDP growth, rising unemployment rates, decreased consumer spending, and increased inflation rates. These factors combined can signal economic contraction.

Question: How does inflation impact economic growth?

Inflation erodes purchasing power, leading consumers to spend less. It also increases costs for businesses, which may reduce investments and hiring—ultimately hindering economic growth.

Question: What is stagflation?

Stagflation is an economic condition characterized by slow economic growth, high unemployment, and rising prices. It presents unique challenges as traditional economic policies to manage inflation may further impede growth.

chance Congress Crime Economic Economy Education Elections Environmental Issues Healthcare Immigration Natural Disasters Politics Public Policy Recession Social Issues Supreme Court Survey Technology White House
Share. Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIn Email Reddit WhatsApp Copy Link Bluesky
News Editor
  • Website

As the News Editor at News Journos, I am dedicated to curating and delivering the latest and most impactful stories across business, finance, politics, technology, and global affairs. With a commitment to journalistic integrity, we provide breaking news, in-depth analysis, and expert insights to keep our readers informed in an ever-changing world. News Journos is your go-to independent news source, ensuring fast, accurate, and reliable reporting on the topics that matter most.

Keep Reading

U.S. News

Man Charged with Arson in Pacific Palisades Fire

5 Mins Read
U.S. News

Boston Pro-Palestinian Protest Escalates into Violent Riot, 13 Arrested

6 Mins Read
U.S. News

Tesla Cuts Model Y Standard Price Below $40,000

4 Mins Read
U.S. News

CoolKicks Founder Arrested for Receiving Stolen Nike Goods Worth $500K

6 Mins Read
U.S. News

Senate Fails to Pass Funding Bill Once More

6 Mins Read
U.S. News

Connecticut Woman Charged with Poisoning Husband During Custody Dispute

5 Mins Read
Journalism Under Siege
Editors Picks

Texas Man Charged with Violent Assault on American Airlines Flight While Referencing Trump and FBI

March 10, 2025

Rep. Joe Wilson Backs Trump on Remarks About Putin

May 27, 2025

Trump Proposes Call with Putin to Discuss Ukraine Ceasefire

May 19, 2025

Trump Celebrates House Approval of Federal Funding Bill

March 12, 2025

Retired General Praises Trump’s Actions Amid U.S. Strikes on Iran

June 21, 2025

Subscribe to News

Get the latest sports news from NewsSite about world, sports and politics.

Facebook X (Twitter) Pinterest Vimeo WhatsApp TikTok Instagram

News

  • World
  • U.S. News
  • Business
  • Politics
  • Europe News
  • Finance
  • Money Watch

Journos

  • Top Stories
  • Turkey Reports
  • Health
  • Tech
  • Sports
  • Entertainment

COMPANY

  • About Us
  • Get In Touch
  • Our Authors
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Accessibility

Subscribe to Updates

Get the latest creative news from FooBar about art, design and business.

© 2025 The News Journos. Designed by The News Journos.

Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.

Ad Blocker Enabled!
Ad Blocker Enabled!
Our website is made possible by displaying online advertisements to our visitors. Please support us by disabling your Ad Blocker.
Go to mobile version